scenario planning exercise

Solved 16. In a typical scenario planning exercise, A ... The groundbreaking event turned out to be influential . During this exercise our community will identify ways to prepare, to respond, and to and recover from a major incident. Still, they are the best opportunity your . Scenario Planning - Encouraging Press D) only worst-case outcomes should be considered. It's not about predicting, but about imagining more effectively. Operations Management. Operations Management. Throughout the GridEx planning process, NERC conducts web-based information sessions to provide organizations with updates on the planning process, scenario design, planning material, and exercise tools. In addition to the 28 workshops commissioned by man- agement . Operation Lockstep - hypothetical scenario or planning exercise?Donate: https://divergemedia.ca/donate-to-diverge/Operation Lockstep article: https://diverge. Exercises should be designed to engage team members and get them working together to . Collaborative — A small core team leads the exercise, but the organization seeks input and participation from a PDF Thrive Scenarios for Resilient Leaders - Deloitte Results of the Hess Scenario Planning Exercise. Business Continuity Exercises — A Complete Guide From scenario planning to stress testing: The next step ... Jason, 48 year old male, has alcohol and mental health issues. Scenario planning identifies probable outcomes that may result from a combination of factors/planning variables and their associated uncertainties. What is Scenario Planning? Theory, framework and example ... Scenarios in practice. What is a scenario? The scenarios include references to actions taken by NYC agencies based on past experiences and interagency planning and discussions. The scenario is a Critical Power Failure with complicating severe weather events. Exercises help build preparedness for threats and hazards by providing a low-risk, cost-effective environment to: Test and validate plans, policies, procedures and capabilitiesIdentify resource requirements, capability gaps, strengths, areas for improvement, and potential best practices Programs FEMA supports the nation's exercise activities through two programs administered by the National . The scenario for this exercise was earthquake-related, with a NICU forced to evacuate due to damage sustained to the hospital. Planning an Exercise. . Section 3 Exercise Types Presents considerations to aid in selecting the type of exercise that best meets the Gina Rubel discusses the types of scenarios that trigger the need to implement a crisis response plan, the eight questions to consider when drafting scenarios for a crisis response plan, and the six questions to ask in your crisis management planning. This is a good way to be wrong. For example, when a North American equipment manufacturer conducted a scenario-planning exercise about the growing importance of China, it began by focusing on the opportunity to sell equipment there. 16. Steward Brand wrote "This present moment used to be the Unimaginable Future.". Through this exercise, BIER identified two primary aspects that will, at their core, define the future state of sustainability within the beverage sector: resource . 2. D. only worst case outcomes should be considered E. only best case outcomes should be considers In a desktop or table top scenario, the team sit down to see how the plan withstands a deeper examination under a specific set of circumstances. For businesses, scenario planning enables decision-makers to identify ranges of potential outcomes and estimated impacts, evaluate responses and manage for both positive and negative possibilities. use in developing emergency preparedness exercises are a suite of 15 National Planning Scenarios (Appendix D). Expert — A small group completes the scenario-planning process, often led by the strategic planning team possibly supported by external consultants and other subject-matter experts. Our scenario planning exercises wil test whether proper processes, checks and safeguards exist and that the necessary communication channels are in place. In a typical scenario planning exercise, A) most scenarios are pessimistic. Questions in the right-hand column are intended to help start your conversations. scenario planning projects, creating a more flexible and more open learning environment is a major objective of the project. Each scenario can be used multiple times to test different aspects of your organization's emergency plans. Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. An organization knows what it needs to be aware of and which decisions will work to its advantage. The scenario exercise comprised two steps: a drivers-of-change analysis (STEEP exercise) fol- lowed by scenario building using the "two axes" method. Scenario Planning. Organizers will need to consider safety precautions when planning the exercise but should try to make it as close to a real-life incident as possible. The toolkit provides a set of scenario planning exercises to help community stakeholders carefully consider the implementation ARV-based prevention strategies in their local contexts. helps leaders develop a detailed, internally consistent picture of a range of plausible outcomes as an industry evolves over time. The self-guided exercise scenario for public health communicators and risk communication researchers covers a raft of themes and associated dilemmas in risk communications, rumor control, interagency message coordination and consistency, issue management, proactive and reactive media relations, cultural competency, and ethical concerns. EXERCISE SCENARIO PLANNING : A PRIMER Overview: Post-incident critiques often confirm that experience gained during exercises was the best way to prepare teams to respond effectively to an emergency. The scenarios based approach to strategic planning is an open and creative approach that considers multiple strategy options a\൮d takes multiple perspectives into account. Simultaneously, it overcomes some of the weaknesses of traditional strategy plannin對g by offering a systematic process to scenario creation that is built upon specific . Shaping a preferred future is the work of leaders. This exercise demonstrates the essence and value of scenario planning and enables students to experience the process of planning in volatile environments. Tip #5 - Plan Creative Messaging. The initial steps to planning an exercise include identifying: An exercise Interim Planning Meeting can establish: Clearly defined, obtainable, and measurable exercise capabilities, tasks, and objectives. You can also incorporate the results of scenario planning into your strategy formulation and implementation. Scenario planning is a way of thinking about the future. This exercise is designed to test the preparedness of the district/school to respond to a multi-agency, multi-site emergency event. considered when planning to run one, why and how to review the exercise, as well as scenarios to exercise. One of the greatest values of scenario planning lies in its articulation of a common future . It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.. Planning your exercise messaging is where the fun begins. Using these scenarios, an organization will be able to make better decisions when problems or changes occur. During a Live Play Exercise, a scenario plays out as fully as possible. Sample Master Scenario Events List . Scenario planning is run following a logical sequence of steps, which are actually the same in every single study. Your pre-planned messages will tell the story of your scenario and add context to your simulation. scenario-planning exercise: 1. An Exercise to Get Your Team Thinking Differently About the Future. Aerosolized Anthrax. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.. The STEEP exercise is designed to B) most scenarios are optimistic. Planning a business continuity exercise can be a daunting task. Scenario Planning at British Airways A Case Study Kathy Moyer Introduction British Airways recently undertook its first Scenario Planning exercise in order to develop further its stra- tegic thinking in light of an uncertain future. Scenario planning A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (scenarios). "It helps you develop strategies for extremes—as well as ongoing shared water challenges—so you can identify basin dependencies, mitigate future risks, and take steps to turn those . Planning an Exercise. Use these scenarios to inspire bold thinking about the future, because as Peter Drucker famously observed, We are in uncharted waters, yet leaders The term scenario was introduced into planning and decision-making by Herman Kahn in connection with military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s. Reality Check, as the exercises were called, were a daylong set of activities using tools that encouraged stakeholder participation to . In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for . Exercises have 3 main purposes: to validate plans (validation) to develop staff competencies and give them . Best practice #4: Consider your options with scenario planning. Following the below tips will help you to develop a comprehensive exercising strategy. Exercise Guidelines. Balancing your priorities with available capacity is both an art and a science. As this example demonstrates, careful planning with attention to detail is key to constructing an effective, meaningful exercise, which can be encompassed by the following three principles: Consider fresh, relevant, and plausible scenarios. The basic idea is this: When we talk about "the future" we naturally imagine a linear extrapolation from the present. Identified exercise scenario variables (e.g., threat scenario, scope of hazard, venue, conditions) It led to the birth of the UPS Charter in 1999 which redefined the company's mission statement and led to the very successful IPO. Scenario planning and futures forecasting is used to examine possible needs. It involves the team working to manage a scenario that evolves during the exercise with 'injects' being used to place different demands on plans and the team. Questions should be developed by the Exercise Planning Team with input from the Evaluator s. Questions should be structured to help Evaluator s collect data on the capability ta rgets and critical tasks.] E) only best-case outcomes should be considered. Perform the necessary due diligence to understand the environment in which the scenario will take place. Conducting a Tabletop Exercise scenario can help train staff, raise their levels of awareness of the business continuity plan and verify their capabilities to communicate, respond and recover from various events. Key To illustrate the challenges of achieving objective validity within participatory scenario planning processes, we use The Theory of Communicative Action (Habermas, 1984a,b) to reflect on a particular case study of scenario planning in a socio-technical context.Our post-hoc reflection of the scenario planning exercise was guided by indices drawn from our reading of Habermas' original text . D) only worst-case outcomes should be considered. SCENARIO PLANNING EXERCISE. Check out one of these top six scenarios for your next Tabletop Exercise. He is currently being held in jail for a trespass charge that occurred at the hospital. National Planning Scenarios: 1. Scenario planning is a useful practice for leaders operating in VUCA environments. Lead and lag indicators are used effectively. But as executives know well, scenario planning has its pitfalls; 40 percent of the leaders we surveyed in 2013 said that it didn't meet their expectations. Section 2 Drought and the Benefits of Preparation Describes the types of drought scenario-based exercises, their uses, and tips for holding a successful exercise. Operations Management questions and answers. In the most common application of the method, analysts generate simulation games for . The initial steps to planning an exercise include identifying: An exercise Interim Planning Meeting can establish: Clearly defined, obtainable, and measurable exercise capabilities, tasks, and objectives. Change typically follows an exponential S-curve. Scenario planning is a predictive modeling technique used for risk analysis and planning policy creation. Event 201 is the fourth such exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins center, which works to prepare communities for biological threats, pandemics, and other disasters. Questions should be developed by the Exercise Planning Team with input from the . Scenario Planning. Scenario planning identifies probable outcomes that may result from a combination of factors/planning variables and their associated uncertainties. Exercise Planning Meetings: Meetings serve as a structured event or forum for completing the major milestones of exercise design and development. Scenario Planning is about making different scenarios for different future landscapes. In 2011, the third evacuation tabletop was conducted in Rockford, Illinois. A scenario is a logical and consistent picture of the future that is credible and challenging to stakeholders. The future will happen if you're passive; a better future can happen when you act consciously. We will challenge assumptions and probe as to whether you have the necessary resources to mount a successful crisis management response. A group of exercise planners focused on the objectives selects the best means to reach those objectives and develops a complete exercise plan known as the master scenario event list (MSEL). Lead your employees through an exercise to identify emergency incident response and recovery procedures and ensure all necessary parties are trained and familiar with the roles, procedures and responsibilities following a disastrous event. [Functional Group] [List suggested discussion questions. objectives are submitted to the exercise planning group to ensure they do not contradict or compromise those of another agency. Post-incident critiques often confirm that experience gained during exercises was the best way to prepare teams to respond effectively to an emergency. It's also an extremely creative effort. Step 1 - "Brainstorm" major issues impacting the sector. Northwest Illinois is similar to southern Illinois with respect to limited NICU resources. "Future scenario planning is a useful critical thinking exercise," says Stuart Orr, Freshwater Practice Lead at WWF, the global conservation organization. Operations Management questions and answers. scenarios have been suggested to allow a wider range of institutions to see themselves for the purposes of this planning exercise. The simulations started with 2001's Dark Winter, which gathered national security experts for its simulated smallpox outbreak. Scenario planning at its core is a type of contingency planning that forces us to develop strategies to be put in place if scenarios begin to play out in real life. C) some scenarios are optimistic and some scenarios are pessimistic. The exercise was well received within the company. Your discussion will (and should) raise more questions as you assess your plan against the situation described. Focused analysis of supply and demand workforce issues. Exercises should be designed to engage team members and get them working together to manage the response to The Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable (BIER) recently completed a future scenarios thinking and planning exercise related to environmental sustainability in 2025. Scenario planning is a methodology designed to help guide groups and individuals through exactly this creative process. The scenarios discussed during these meetings were developed using existing data, trends and forecasts. Whereas some scenario planning exercises use little or no software or data, other scenario planning exercises have a strong software and data focus. E) only best-case outcomes should be considered. The world doesn't do linear. Virtual was contracted to conduct Business continuity planning exercises at several major manufacturing and warehousing locations for a . Often, companies fall prey to one of several tendencies, such as availability or stability bias, that hinder the exercise and produce unusable results. planning and training. Scenarios rarely come to fruition exactly as imagined, but since we develop multiple visions of the future, the elements from different scenarios begin to overlap. B) most scenarios are optimistic. We will take one 20‐ With so many combinations to consider, some of which may require significant staffing changes, understanding and properly evaluating the options through scenario planning is important. The scenarios based approach to strategic planning is an open and creative approach that considers multiple strategy options a\൮d takes multiple perspectives into account. Generally, software helps quantify relationships between factors such as land, environment, and transportation through the use of algorithms, which can enable a scenario planning exercise to have a . An exercise is a simulation of an emergency situation. The range of planning meetings are described in the following tables (Table 3.1, Table 3.2, Table 3.3, Table 3.4, and Table 3.5), though not all meetings may be . The first step of the scenario planning exercise is to sit down with the executive team and "brainstorm" major issues impacting the sector. In a typical scenario planning exercise, A) most scenarios are pessimistic. In the chart below, the first column shows the net present value (NPV), at a 10% discount factor, of the Hess portfolio . Scenario planning is making assumptions on what the future is going to be and how your business environment will change overtime in light of that future. Tools borrowed from scenario planning can broaden your view. Focus on Strategy . Thinking about the future is hard, mainly because we are glued to . Emergency planning exercises. A tabletop exercise is a scenario-based discussion designed to simulate an emergency situation or disaster. N2 - This paper critically assesses a series of scenario planning exercises in the Washington Metropolitan region and the State of Maryland within a broad and evolving framework of participatory planning. • Exercise scenario • Clearly defined exercise objectives and aligned core capabilities • Format of exercise (see below for discussion) • Finalized exercise planning timeline with exercise conduct logistics • Confirmation of expected level of effort for all participating organizations Preparedness program exercises enhance knowledge of plans, improve performance, and identify opportunities to improve capabilities to respond to real events. Scenario The group needs to develop a realistic scenario to ensure that participants will take the exercise seriously. This exercise, known as scenario planning, asked Kansans to consider three plausible scenarios about where Kansans will live and how they expect to use transportation to move people, freight and technology. It became more appropriate for the changing times, was more graphic, short, and concise and provided a clear direction of UPS goals. in the typical scenario planning exercise, A. most scenarios are pessimistic B. most scenarios are optimistic C. some scenarios are optimistic and some are pessimistic. A scenario can be defined as: "A rich and . Following the exercise, there will be a debriefing time, aka a "Hot Wash". Identified exercise scenario variables (e.g., threat scenario, scope of hazard, venue, conditions) Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) 2. Through our methodology, we have tested the robustness of Hess' asset portfolio and intended forward investments under multiple energy scenarios, including the IEA's SDS. 16. Housekeeping: The exercise may take us up to five hours to complete. question of a scenario planning exercise might be: "What part of the energy value chain should we invest in?" . Workforce metrics are used in a focused and strategic way. Scenario planning exercises that examine strategies for the next 2, 5, or 10 years are expensive, and apply more to executives and senior managers than at the program or product level. Teams are formed, an organization is selected, and a list of strategy questions is prepared and narrowed to each team's overriding "Big Question." Exercise Planning The exercise planning process determines the participants, exercise scenario, injects and the execution order for the course of the exercise. 2. Royal Dutch/Shell has used scenar-ios since the early 1970s as part of a process for generat-ing and evaluating its strategic options.2 Shell has been Scenario #1 . Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagin-ing possible futures that companies have applied to a great range of issues. It sounds simple, and possibly . Scenario planning is a process pioneered by the U.S. military, which today runs exercises looking up to 20 years out to guide R&D efforts. The scenario should include: Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. The assumption was that Chinese producers would buy the equipment to build products for their own local end customers—and that the company . The process begins by identifying forces of change in the world, then . Additionally, organizations may choose to collaborate with neighboring utilities to observe or participate in the exercise. Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in Futures Studies. 3. 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